Monday, October 12

Oil was the session’s clearest cross-asset move: WTI rose 2.06% to $93.74 and Brent gained 1.84% to $106.65 after weekend Houthi attacks on Riyadh’s main airport. Brent’s brief move above $105.50 and subsequent retreat showed the market adding a geopolitical premium without treating disruption as inevitable. Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure added to supply concerns, while reports of a proposed Russia–Ukraine energy ceasefire conflicted: Donald Trump said a deal had been reached, but Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Moscow had violated it.

Energy shares gained 1.5%, yet the broader U.S. market barely moved. That split matters: the immediate repricing was concentrated in crude and energy equities rather than spreading into a generalized risk selloff. Whether that holds depends on whether attacks translate into sustained disruption; for now, oil is carrying the clearest signal of geopolitical risk.

The dollar index reached its highest level since April 2025 and has risen roughly 4% over the past month. EUR/USD touched a new 2026 low near $1.12, while USD/JPY climbed to 158.70, a three-week high that keeps the prospect of Japanese intervention in focus. The Indian rupee was a relative exception among emerging-market currencies after action by the Reserve Bank of India.

There was no fresh U.S. cash Treasury signal: markets were closed for Columbus Day. Friday’s 10-year yield ended near 5.24%, below the prior week’s peak near 5.4% after strong demand at government debt auctions. In Europe, French and Italian spreads over Germany widened, and French 10-year yields approached 5%, last seen in July 2002. The combination of a firm dollar and elevated yields leaves Wednesday’s U.S. CPI release especially consequential for currency and rate expectations.

U.S. equities finished mixed: the Dow rose 0.38%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.06% and the Nasdaq fell 0.44%. Energy stocks advanced as technology shares lost 0.9%; Meta gained 3.4% and Microsoft reached a 2026 high, but those gains did not prevent the tech-heavy index from lagging. The uneven leadership points to pressure on parts of the sector rather than a single technology-driven catalyst.

Regional trading was more severe in Asia: South Korean shares fell about 4% when markets reopened after a long weekend, while European equities rose roughly 0.7% and the U.K. gained about 1%. Investors now face major-bank earnings beginning Tuesday and October CPI on Wednesday. The University of Michigan’s preliminary sentiment index had already fallen to 46.3 as households grew more concerned about prices and interest rates, making the inflation report a test of whether subdued U.S. index moves can persist.