Friday, October 9

Global equities recovered from the prior session’s sell-off: the S&P 500 rose 0.6%, the Dow 0.8%, and MSCI World 0.7%. European shares also advanced. The rebound came as oil eased and concerns about AI spending moderated, but it was not a clean technology-sector recovery: semiconductor stocks remained weak.

The debate was sharpened by reports that OpenAI’s annualized revenue was about $50 billion, roughly $20 billion below a figure previously circulated. That gap fed questions about whether heavy investment by cloud and AI companies can produce enough near-term revenue and profit to support valuations. Softer sentiment around the spending cycle helped shares recover, but chipmakers’ underperformance suggests investors remain selective about who captures the returns. The rally therefore signals less a resolution than a pause in the market’s most consequential technology valuation test.

Oil’s geopolitical premium eased after President Donald Trump said the United States would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections. WTI was around $91.67 a barrel at the U.S. close, after trading lower earlier; Brent settled near $105. The pullback was limited, however, by evidence that Gulf shipping remains exposed: an attack on a tanker near Qatar raised concern that disruption could spread beyond the Strait of Hormuz.

Reported effects on U.S. offshore production from Hurricane Isaias added another supply concern. The competing forces left crude balancing a near-term reduction in the risk of U.S. escalation against the possibility of tighter supply if shipping or production is disrupted. For energy markets, the political pledge changed the timing of one risk, not the region’s vulnerability.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose 2 basis points to 5.25%, keeping borrowing-cost pressure in place even as equities recovered. The 2-year yield was around 4.78%; persistent inflation, energy costs, expectations of further rate increases and government-debt concerns continued to underpin the broader bond sell-off. Investors were looking ahead to U.S. inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s October meeting. German and British 10-year yields moved lower, underscoring that the U.S. rate pressure was not simply a uniform global move.

The dollar gained modestly and was on course for its longest weekly advance since early 2025, supported by elevated Treasury yields and expectations that persistent U.S. inflation could keep the Fed restrictive. Gold rose about 1.5% as the dollar softened and yields retreated modestly. The cross-asset message is that Friday’s stock bounce did little to dislodge the high-rate backdrop.