Saturday, October 3

September payrolls rose by just 29,000, well below expectations of roughly 84,000–90,000, while unemployment edged up to 4.2%. The weakness sharply reduced expectations for an October Fed hike, helping lift the Nasdaq 1.19% to a record and the S&P 500 0.73%; technology shares led the advance as rate-sensitive valuations gained support. European equities also climbed.

The bond signal was less reassuring. The two-year Treasury yield fell about 6.5 basis points to 4.72%, while the 10-year ended near 5.28% after recovering from an initial decline. That steepening suggests near-term policy expectations eased without resolving concern about inflation, borrowing and long-term debt supply. The dollar slipped modestly, while gold fell as defensive demand unwound. The rally therefore reflects a repricing of the next Fed move, not a clean all-clear on the cost of capital.

Oil fell after reports that G7 countries had agreed to release about 100 million barrels of crude and diesel over four months through the IEA. Brent dropped roughly 2.5% to around $99.45 a barrel, while WTI also declined and traded below $90 intraday. European gasoil fell about 5%, showing the move reached refined products as well as crude.

The reserve plan eased immediate supply concerns even as geopolitical risks involving Iran, Saudi Arabia and the Houthi movement remained. That contrast makes the announcement consequential: a coordinated release can temper near-term scarcity pricing, but it does not remove the risk premium tied to potential disruption. For markets, the sharp energy decline also sits against elevated inflation pressure, limiting how much relief lower crude alone can deliver.