Thursday, October 1

The global bond selloff was the day’s dominant market signal. The U.S. 10-year yield briefly approached 5.35%, its highest level in roughly 24 years, before retreating to about 5.25%; the 30-year yield reached approximately 5.67%. The move reflected persistent concerns over inflation, government borrowing and heavy sovereign-debt supply rather than a new Federal Reserve announcement.

The repricing was not confined to Treasuries. The U.K. 30-year gilt yield topped 6% for the first time since 1998, while Japan’s 30-year yield reached roughly 4.20%. The dollar index rose 0.6% to 102.03, with the euro near a three-month low and the yen around 158.41 per dollar, as widening rate differentials supported dollar demand.

Recent data reinforced the policy uncertainty: second-quarter GDP was revised to 2.2% annualized, private employment exceeded expectations, and PCE inflation remained elevated despite softer-than-expected readings. With payrolls due next, markets faced a less straightforward path toward easing and renewed sensitivity to another rate increase.

Oil delivered the clearest commodity shock, with Brent rising 4.4% to roughly $102.35-$102.55 a barrel and WTI gaining about 2.9% to above $93. The move carried two distinct supply concerns: reports that China’s refiners suspended October fuel exports to prioritize domestic availability, and renewed fears of escalation in the U.S.-Iran confrontation.

Reports that the United States was deploying a third aircraft carrier to the Middle East widened the geopolitical risk premium. That matters beyond energy equities: a sustained crude move above $100 would complicate the inflation outlook just as investors are debating whether weakening labor-market momentum can justify further Federal Reserve easing. Gold also rose about 0.5% to roughly $4,205 an ounce, consistent with demand for protection as both sovereign yields and geopolitical risk increased.

Micron’s strong results and outlook provided the principal equity-specific catalyst, reinforcing confidence in artificial-intelligence semiconductor demand. That support helped technology stocks withstand the rise in long-term yields, leaving the S&P 500 up 0.2% and the Nasdaq up just 0.04%.

The narrow index gains are more revealing than their direction. AI exposure offset, but did not eliminate, the valuation pressure created by higher discount rates; the broader market’s resilience rested heavily on a concentrated technology leadership group rather than a broad reduction in macro risk. Investors also positioned ahead of the September nonfarm-payrolls report, expected to show roughly 84,000 jobs after about half that pace in August, with unemployment broadly stable. The release was therefore set to test whether slowing labor demand could counter elevated inflation, energy and rate risks.