Saturday, September 26

Reports of a possible phased U.S.–Iran agreement to gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and relax sanctions or maritime restrictions drove the session’s cross-asset move. The reports did not establish a final deal, but they were sufficient to remove part of the geopolitical premium from energy: WTI fell 2.29% to $92.44, Brent declined 2.09% to $104.37, and Dutch TTF gas dropped 6.02% to €70.43.

The relief extended beyond commodities. The Dow rose 0.93%, outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, while the 10-year Treasury yield slipped roughly four basis points to about 5.17%-5.18% as lower energy prices moderated inflation concerns. The dollar ended a five-session advance, with dollar-yen down 1.02% to ¥157.233. Japan, Italy, and Mexico outperformed among major equity markets, consistent with greater sensitivity to energy costs. The market’s message was conditional: diplomacy can quickly reverse the energy shock, but the repricing remains vulnerable until shipping access and sanctions relief become concrete.