Monday, August 10

Oil was the day’s clearest repricing. Reuters linked a more than 4% rally to renewed uncertainty over a possible U.S.-Iran agreement affecting the Strait of Hormuz, while other market coverage reported gains of about 5%. A drone strike on a fuel-storage tank at Libya’s Zawiya refinery added a concrete disruption to the geopolitical risk premium, making the move broader than a purely diplomatic headline.

The spillover was visible across markets: gold rose 2.11% to $4,342 an ounce in one recap as the dollar and Treasury yields eased, while wheat firmed on Black Sea supply concerns. U.S. equities finished modestly lower in later reporting, with the Nasdaq down 85.26 points, and the Philadelphia semiconductor index reportedly fell nearly 3%. The implication is less about the absolute oil price than the cross-asset transmission: energy upside is beginning to pressure duration-sensitive and economically exposed equity segments before U.S. CPI provides the next test for the rates outlook.

The Reserve Bank of India unanimously left its repo rate at 5.25% and retained a neutral policy stance. Governor Sanjay Malhotra said domestic demand continued to support growth, while stressing that greater clarity on inflation was needed before further action. That combination keeps the RBI from joining the easing cycle immediately, even as it acknowledges a stronger growth backdrop.

The central bank raised its FY27 real GDP growth forecast to 6.7% from its prior outlook, making the forecast change the more consequential part of the decision for Indian assets. It reinforces the case for a relatively resilient domestic economy, but the neutral stance limits the signal for near-term rate cuts. Attention now shifts to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s expected unchanged 4.35% decision and updated projections, alongside U.S. CPI later in the week, which will shape the broader global rates context.