Friday, May 1

Semiconductor stocks exploded higher Thursday, driving the Nasdaq to a surprise 2.1% gain against consensus expectations of rotation out of tech after Powell's hawkish hold, with Intel soaring 23.6% to $82.54, AMD up 13.9% to $347.81, and Qualcomm advancing 11.1% to $148.85 on unconfirmed reports of AI chip demand exceeding forecasts. The S&P 500 climbed 1.4% to 5,892 amid the chip-led rebound, while the Dow added 0.8% as defense names like General Dynamics beat earnings with orders doubling expectations, underscoring rearmament bets tied to Hegseth's Iran war defense in his Hill hearing. European Stoxx 600 rose 1.1% and Japan's Nikkei gained 0.9%, catching the risk-on flow despite UBS's 'Wile E Coyote' recession warning.

Oil prices jumped over 6% to $82.50 per barrel after Trump vowed to maintain the Iran blockade, defying trader bets on de-escalation and amplifying inflation fears just as Powell's final meeting ended with four Fed officials dissenting on cuts. The 10-year Treasury yield held steady at 4.62% as rate cut odds plunged to 12% for June post-dissent, pressuring gold to slip 0.5% to $2,342 while the dollar index firmed 0.3% to 106.2. Bitcoin dipped 1.2% to $95,400, ignoring the equity pop amid Blockworks' $192 million raise signaling crypto data maturation.

Consumer delinquency risks mounted per OFR analysis linking shelter inflation to non-mortgage defaults, particularly for renters, while CRE loan stresses loom for smaller banks. Friday's nonfarm payrolls report commands focus as it tests Powell dissenters' hawkish tilt; a print above 180k consensus would cement no-cut June and unwind $2 trillion in rate swap positioning.