Tuesday, April 28

Semiconductor stocks exploded higher on blockbuster earnings, lifting the Nasdaq and overshadowing commercial real estate vulnerability signals that had traders positioned for rotation out of tech. Intel rocketed 23.60% to $82.54 after reporting results that crushed lowered expectations, while AMD gained 13.91% to $347.81 and Qualcomm rose 11.12% to $148.85, pushing the Nasdaq up 2.1% in a session where desks dumped consensus bets on AI fatigue. S&P 500 climbed 1.3% to a record 5,892 amid the chip frenzy, with broader participation as HCA sank on weak volumes but Procter & Gamble advanced on volume-led sales beats; international indices trailed, Nikkei flat and FTSE down 0.4% as Europe digested mixed PMI data.

The rally decoupled from macro headwinds, as an Office of Financial Research brief highlighted CRE loan defaults potentially wiping out equity at hundreds of smaller banks under mild stress, validating bears who saw office vacancies eroding lender buffers despite post-2020 resilience. Yields held steady, 10-year Treasury at 4.32% after dipping on safe-haven bids, USD index flat at 105.8 as FX stayed rangebound; oil slipped 1% to $82/bbl on demand worries, gold steady near $2,650/oz. Consumer delinquency risks tied to shelter inflation added to household strain narratives, countering equity euphoria.

Cross-asset positioning revealed stretched tech longs unwinding minimally, with semis defying rate-sensitive flows as yields stabilized. Tuesday's durable goods orders print matters because consensus eyes manufacturing reacceleration to support Fed pause bets; weakness could revive June cut odds now at 65%.